Export tariffs are a central issue in the discussion about trade relations between Brazil and the United States, especially in a turbulent electoral scenario.

The recent public hearing debating the implementation of 25% tariffs on Brazilian exports is taking place amidst intense political dispute, with the absence of the Brazilian government and attempts to influence the debate through parliamentarians.

This article will explore the repercussions of this hearing, the strategies adopted by Brazil, and the position of... EUA and the economic implications of these tariffs in the near future.

Political context and electoral dispute

Electoral Race: While the hearing in the United States progressed regarding the proposed 25% tariff on Brazilian products, the debate was already tainted by the electoral dispute in Brazil. Thus, every gesture gained an immediate political interpretation and began to influence campaign narratives. Absence of the Federal Government: The Executive Branch chose not to send representatives because it preferred not to legitimize a technical investigation conducted by the USTR and maintained a strategy of diplomatic negotiation outside the public arena. However, this stance opened space for criticism and disputes over versions. Role of the Senator : In this vacuum, a senator assumed the leading role and tried to steer the conversation as a defense of national interests, speaking on behalf of the country and also vying for political capital for the domestic scene, while opponents accused him of acting against Brazil.

"We need transparency in this process," said a member of parliament from the ruling coalition.

Economic tension: Although the audience figures indicate immediate commercial pressure, the broader effects tend to appear only after the elections, which increases the tension between electoral calculations and the real economic impact.

Conducting the public hearing by the USTR

The USTR conducted the public hearing following a technical investigation that gathered data, allegations, and formal responses regarding the proposed 25% tariff on Brazilian exports.

First, the agency assessed commercial impacts, regulatory arguments, and sectoral effects, which provided the basis for the process.

Next, the floor was opened for comments from companies, organizations, and experts, reinforcing that this is the appropriate channel to discuss the measure.

Thus, the hearing did not emerge as an isolated act, but as the final stage of a technical and administrative process that the government of EUA It uses this to support its decisions.

While Brazil avoided legitimizing the investigation and preferred diplomatic negotiations, Washington maintained its defense that public debate at the USTR offers transparency and the opportunity for rebuttal before any tariffs take effect.

"The hearing is the appropriate forum to address the issue," the USTR stated.

Phase	Description
Research	Technical data analysis
Court hearing	Stakeholder presentation

Brazilian diplomatic strategy

Brazil's strategy regarding the 25% tariff prioritizes diplomatic negotiations because the government avoids legitimizing the technical investigation opened by the United States, considered an asymmetrical procedure amidst the electoral dispute.

By refusing formal participation, Brazil reduces the risk of accepting premises that weaken its defense and, at the same time, keeps the direct dialogue with Washington open.

Furthermore, this stance preserves internal political leeway and shifts the debate to traditional state channels, instead of increasing public pressure on the issue.

"The USTR hearing is the appropriate forum to hear from the parties," stated a U.S. diplomat.

The Brazilian Foreign Ministry (Itamaraty), in turn, prioritizes private contacts, technical cooperation, and bilateral negotiation, seeking to avoid misunderstandings and accelerate a solution before the economic effects become entrenched.

• Bilateral meetings at Itamaraty
• Dialogue in multilateral organizations

As one Brazilian diplomat summarized,

"The goal is to preserve the political channel and prevent the investigation from defining the framework of the conflict."

Escalating tensions and accusations of betrayal.

The tariff hearing in Washington further inflamed the political dispute in the Brazilian Congress, because Flávio Bolsonaro's presence was interpreted by government supporters as a gesture of alignment with foreign interests against the country.

Opposition parliamentarians reacted harshly and began to speak of betrayal , increasing the pressure on colleagues who defend dialogue with the United States. "They are selling the country!", accused one opposition leader, while other allies reinforced that the initiative exposed Brazil at a moment of electoral fragility.

At the same time, the government avoided legitimizing the investigation conducted by the USTR and opted for the diplomatic route, but the decision fueled internal conflict.

Furthermore, criticism focused on Flávio Bolsonaro , Jair Bolsonaro , and parliamentarians who support the offensive against the tariffs, under the allegation that external pressure could be costly for the economy after the elections.

Economic impacts predicted for the post-election period.

The 25% tariffs tend to produce a more visible shock only after the elections , because the transmission occurs in stages.

First, companies renegotiate contracts, adjust shipments, and absorb part of the cost.

Then, when inventories fall and external demand weakens, the loss becomes apparent in revenue, margins, and employment.

Furthermore, the political dispute reduces the chance of an immediate reaction, since the Brazilian government avoids legitimizing the technical hearing and prefers the diplomatic route, while the USTR treats the process as the appropriate forum.

During this interval, the economic effect is held back.

Most vulnerable sectors :

• Agribusiness
• Metallurgy
• Automotive industry

In agribusiness, a drop in competitiveness can cut sales at a rate similar to a tariff increase; in other words, a 25% tariff can reduce margins by a similar proportion.

In the metallurgy sector, long-term contracts cushion the impact in the short term, but the decline in export flows weighs heavily in the following quarter.

In the automotive industry, parts and components are experiencing logistical delays and cancellations, raising costs and putting pressure on production after the election.

Export tariffs bring with them a series of challenges for the Brazilian economy.

With political tensions running high and expectations of economic impacts, the post-election scenario will be crucial for understanding the repercussions of these trade decisions.