Tensions Between EUA Iran and other countries have significantly impacted the global economic environment, directly affecting the performance of the Ibovespa and the dollar exchange rate.

In this article, we will analyze the recent drop in the Ibovespa, accompanied by a slight rise in the dollar, as well as the behavior of oil prices and the latest news on inflation, represented by the IPCA.

The current situation raises concerns about inflation converging to the target and the potential impact on interest rates, which are expected to remain high for a longer period.

Summary of the Day's Key Indicators

The Ibovespa fell 0,86% and closed the trading session at 180.342,33 points, in an environment of greater caution.

Meanwhile, the spot dollar advanced. 0,08 % and also to 4,8949 BRL, although it still accumulates a drop of 10,82 % in the year.

The session reflected a worsening appetite for risk and a search for safe haven among investors.

The tensions between EUA and Iran They remained in the spotlight and helped sustain the advance in oil prices, with Brent crude at... US$ 107 per barrel.

This movement reinforced the pressure on assets sensitive to the external environment and increased volatility in the markets.

Thus, stocks linked to commodities and securities more exposed to global flows felt the impact of geopolitical news.

In the domestic sphere, the HICP slowed down to 0,67 % in April, but accumulated a rise of 4,39 % em 12 months.

Even with inflation slowing down this month, the reading still indicates a need for higher interest rates for longer, as convergence to the target is expected to occur gradually.

Ibovespa: Down 0,86% under geopolitical pressure.

The Ibovespa closed down 0,86%, at 180.342,33 points, reflecting the growing geopolitical pressure between Washington and Tehran.

Amid this climate of caution, investors adopted a defensive stance, leading to profit-taking and negatively impacting sectors sensitive to the external environment.

The global situation triggered an immediate reaction in the market, where risk aversion prevailed.

Immediate Effects of Stresses EUA-Iran

The tensions between EUA Iran and other countries have increased the global risk premium and therefore reduced the appetite for emerging markets such as Brazil.

As a result, foreign capital tends to migrate to more defensive assets, while the stock market suffers immediate pressure.

steel mills e Airlines They tend to react more because they depend on investor sentiment, the cost of oil, and the exchange rate.

Furthermore, banks, retail, and construction are also feeling the effect, as higher interest rates for longer periods and external uncertainty are squeezing margins and hindering decision-making.

Thus, the flow of funds becomes slower and more selective, punishing risk-sensitive sectors.

Dollar: Slight Daily Gain, Significant Year-to-Date Drop

The spot dollar advanced. 0,08 % and closed priced at 4,8949 BRL, in a technical move after recent lows, while the market tracked the tension between EUA Iran and the rise in oil prices.

Despite the slight recovery, the real still found support in the flow of exports and the improvement in the current account, factors that helped limit stronger pressures on the Brazilian currency, even with the more sensitive external environment.

Year-to-date, the dollar is still showing a decline of 10,82 %, reflecting the combination of more favorable domestic fundamentals and the inflow of resources at certain times.

Furthermore, the slowdown in inflation reinforces the view that the Central Bank should keep interest rates high for longer, which supports the exchange rate.

However, geopolitical shocks continue to temper optimism and may cause occasional adjustments in the exchange rate.

Brent crude oil at $107 and financial repercussions.

Brent closed at US$ 107 per barrel, fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East and fears of disruptions in the Persian Gulf.

This movement reinforces the risk of tighter supply and increases pressure on transportation, energy, and industrial input costs.

In the Brazilian market, higher oil prices tend to increase fuel prices and make it more difficult for inflation to converge to the target, especially since the IPCA (Consumer Price Index) still shows a gradual slowdown, but requires high interest rates for a longer period to maintain price control.

Type	Price (US$)
Brent	107
WTI	102,88

Furthermore, the rise in Brent crude oil prices affects the balance sheets of energy-intensive companies, as it increases the cost of logistics, production, and electricity generation.

On the other hand, companies in the oil sector may benefit, while fuel-dependent sectors face margin compression and partial pass-through to consumers.

IPCA at 0,67% and Prospects of High Interest Rates

The IPCA slowed down to 0,67 % in April, following pressure from food prices, but the 12-month result still advanced to 4,39 %, showing that the disinflationary trajectory remains incomplete.

Even with the truce in the overall index, the scenario continues to demand caution, because inflation is not yet firmly converging towards the target and expectations remain sensitive to price shocks, especially in energy, services, and more volatile items.

Thus, the data reinforces that improvement exists, but it is not yet sufficient to completely ease monetary policy.

• Inflationary inertia in services and administered prices.
• Core inflation remains under pressure, signaling a spread of the upward trend.
• The need to anchor expectations for a longer period.

Therefore, the Selic rate should remain at a restrictive level for an extended period.since convergence to the target tends to occur gradually and depends on maintaining tight financial conditions.

In shortGeopolitical uncertainties and economic indicators reflect a challenging scenario for the market.

Caution is essential, given the impact of international tensions and the trajectory of inflation in Brazil.