The economic perception of the Brazilian population in July 2026 shows signs of slight improvement, reflecting a change in the economic landscape under President Lula's administration.

Recent BTG/Nexus research reveals an increase in positive assessments of the economy, as well as a widening of Lula's lead in voting intentions compared to candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.

With an analysis ranging from perceptions of the economic situation to electoral intentions, this article explores the main findings of the survey and the impact this data may have on the upcoming elections.

Overview of the BTG/Nexus Survey – July 2026

The BTG/Nexus survey from July 2026 shows a picture of slight improvement in economic perception and consolidation of Lula's lead in the presidential race.

In the country's assessment, the percentage of Brazilians who see the economy as better under Lula's government rose from 38% to 40% , while the percentage who consider it worse fell from 44% to 42%.

Meanwhile, negative views of the economy, such as bad or terrible, fell from 53% to 49% , while perceptions of an optimal or good scenario increased from 15% to 18%.

In the electoral arena, Lula rose from 40% to 42% in the first round, widening his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro, whose support fluctuated from 34% to 33%.

In the second round, Lula maintained 47% , while Flávio dropped from 44% to 43% , reinforcing a scenario of stability with a PT advantage.

As the report summarizes, "the race remains tight, but Lula maintains his lead."

complete search

Evolution of economic perception under Lula's government

The BTG/Nexus survey from July 2026 shows a slight, yet relevant, improvement in the perception of the economy under Lula.

The percentage of those who see the economic scenario as improving increased from 38% to 40% , while the percentage who foresee a worsening situation decreased from 44% to 42%.

This shift indicates that negative assessments still prevail, but are losing strength, which helps explain the government's political gain compared to the previous poll.

Furthermore, the perception of a bad or terrible economy fell from 53% to 49% , reinforcing the view that Lula's administration is beginning to see some relief in public opinion.

Indicator	June	July
Better economy	38 %	40 %
Worsening economy	44 %	42 %
Bad or terrible	53 %	49 %
Great or good	15 %	18 %

At the same time, the positive outlook rose from 15% to 18% , signaling a still slow, but consistent, recovery in economic sentiment.

This scenario aligns with Lula's performance in the polls, as the president increased his lead in the first round and also gained ground in the second.

Thus, reading the report suggests that the perceived improvement in the economy does not resolve the climate of dissatisfaction, but it does reduce the pressure on the government and strengthens the narrative of gradual recovery.

Voting intentions in the first round

The BTG/Nexus poll from July 2026 shows a 9-point lead for Lula in the first round, with 42% of voting intentions compared to 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro.

This scenario confirms the president's lead and indicates that the race continues to favor the Workers' Party candidate, especially since the difference has grown compared to the previous round, reflecting a more comfortable political climate for his campaign.

Compared to the previous survey, Lula's performance improved moderately, while Flávio lost momentum.

See the example of oscillation:

• Lula: 40% ➔ 42%
• Flávio: 34% ➔ 33%

Although the change may seem small, it has strategic weight, as it widens the leader's margin and reduces the opponent's ability to react.

Furthermore, the numbers suggest greater consolidation of the vote for Lula, while Flávio faces more difficulty in transforming support into consistent growth.

In a competitive electoral environment, this difference reinforces the interpretation that the president enters the race with a significant political advantage.

Scenario of a second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

In the second-round scenario of the BTG/Nexus poll from July 2026, Lula appears with 47% to 43% over Flávio Bolsonaro, widening his lead from three to four percentage points.

This move reinforces a more favorable scenario for the president, because it demonstrates stability in his performance and, at the same time, a slight retreat by his opponent.

While Lula maintained the same 47% as in the previous survey, Flávio fell from 44% to 43%, indicating difficulty in gaining ground among voters already in the polls.

Furthermore, the difference suggests a competitive scenario, but with a clear sign of resilience for Lula, especially because the improved perception of the economy also helps to support his candidacy.

Thus, the snapshot of the second round points to a consistent advantage, in which small fluctuations can become decisive factors in the final stretch of the election.

In summary , the research indicates a recovery in economic perception and a consolidation of Lula's leadership, which could decisively influence the political landscape of Brazil in the next elections.