Stagnant Market is the central theme of this article, which explores the current situation of the labor market for EUA, reflecting on the low hiring and firing rates recorded in September.

Despite signs of economic strengthening, monetary policy is on a cautious path, taking into account future economic prospects.

In this context, we will examine how government policies, inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve's next steps may affect the country's economy and employment.

Labor Market of EUA in September: Signs of Stagnation

In September, the US labor market presented low hiring and layoffs, highlighting a situation of stagnation in the sector.

This situation occurs at a time when the economy is showing more significant signs of strengthening than expected.

Despite this apparently promising scenario, job creation has not kept pace with this economic strength.

O Federal Reserve assessed that this dynamic, combined with the risk of high inflation, reflects a less dynamic market.

Companies reported difficulties in filling existing vacancies.

Consequently, available data indicate that both hiring and layoffs remain low.

Highlights:

• Hiring rate practically stable
• Controlled layoffs

.

Given this context, the next monetary policy meeting, at the end of October, will be crucial in directing appropriate measures to the labor market.

Monetary Policy in Focus: Adjustments in the Face of Risks and Prospects

Monetary policy in the United States is under constant evaluation, especially in times of economic uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve chooses to adjust its decisions based on changing economic prospects and emerging risks, rather than following a predetermined path.

This flexible approach seeks to ensure that the measures taken are appropriate to current market conditions and the country's needs.

Alternative Sources for Measuring Employment Dynamics

The shutdown in the United States resulted in a delay in the release of payroll data, which led analysts to seek alternative sources to understand labor market dynamics.

Services such as ADP e JOLTS play a significant role as reliable parameters.

While the data show that hiring and firing remain at low levels, detailed analysis from other institutions reinforces this observation.

For instance, on our trip to Paychex indicators reveal a 0,2% drop in the hiring rate.

Thus, private sources offer a comprehensive view of the economy, supporting monetary policy strategies.

The following table exemplifies this comparison:

Pig iron	Indicator
paychex	0,2% drop

These workarounds help maintain market confidence, even in the face of government delays.

October Meeting: Expectation of a 0,25 pp Interest Rate Cut

A expectation of a 0,25 percentage point cut in the interest rate at the end of October is due to several interconnected factors.

Firstly, the persistent inflationary pressures linked to tariffs imposed on trade have affected consumers' purchasing power.

This, in turn, creates an environment where the reduction in interest rates can help ease this burden.

Furthermore, with the economy showing signs of an unexpected recovery, the Federal Reserve is looking adjust its monetary policy to support continued growth.

Some determining factors are evident:

1. Inflationary pressures linked to tariffs continue to require interventions to prevent economic erosion.
2. The need for a flexible monetary policy that adjusts to emerging data keeps the market alert to changes.

Finally, the Fed's approach of maintaining decisions based on available data, without following a predetermined path, is crucial for market confidence.

Thus, with the Fed meeting scheduled for the end of October, a timely adjustment is expected that takes these economic nuances into account and creates a more favorable environment for investment and economic growth.

In short, the analysis of the labor market situation and monetary policies in EUA reveals a scenario of stagnation, where future decisions will be crucial for economic recovery and inflation control.