A reduction in the Selic rate is a crucial issue for the Brazilian economic scenario, especially with the recent decrease of 0,25 percentage points, settling at 14% per year.

This article will explore the impacts of this change on investment options available in the market, such as savings accounts, Treasury Selic bonds, and Certificates of Deposit (CDBs).

Furthermore, we will analyze comparisons of returns and the security offered by different investment options, as well as the tax implications of LCIs and LCAs.

Join us for a detailed analysis of how the new rate may influence your financial decisions.

Selic rate reduction to 14%: initial overview

The 0,25 percentage point reduction in the Selic rate, now set at 14% per year , immediately alters the attractiveness of fixed income and changes the growth rate of the most popular investments in the country, because the new level reduces the basic interest rate that serves as a reference for the remuneration of savings accounts, Treasury Selic bonds, and CDBs linked to the CDI.

In the short term, savings accounts remain the lowest-return option, while Treasury Selic bonds maintain a more efficient performance, despite taxation and custody fees.

A CDB (Certificate of Deposit) that pays 100% of the CDI (Interbank Deposit Certificate) tends to remain very close to the Selic Treasury bond initially, with a slight advantage in some scenarios, especially when tax collection is considered.

Over the years, however, the difference between products becomes more visible, and the composition of interest rates shows why small variations in the Selic rate affect the final result so much.

Furthermore, the possibility of a drop to 13,75% by 2026 reinforces the need for investors to consider not only immediate returns but also the cumulative effect over the long term.

Estimated return after 1 year

Savings accounts remain the simplest and most accessible option, but also the least efficient among the fixed-income options analyzed, because their returns follow their own rules and tend to fall below those of public and private bonds.

The Tesouro Selic 2031, on the other hand, tracks the basic interest rate of the economy, offers liquidity, and has the security of the National Treasury, although it does not have the coverage of the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund).

A CDB (Certificate of Deposit) that pays 100% of the CDI (Interbank Deposit Certificate) rate, in turn, tends to deliver a return close to the Selic Treasury bond, but with income tax applied, which reduces the net gain.

LCIs and LCAs, on the other hand, are exempt from income tax for individuals and therefore gain a significant tax advantage, especially over longer terms.

With the Selic rate stable at 14% per year and an initial investment of R$ 10, the simulation shows the following order of return in 12 months.

Savings accounts reach R$ 10.702,96, while the Selic Treasury bond maturing in 2031 reaches R$ 11.133,79. A 100% CDI-linked CDB yields R$ 11.141,90, and an LCI/LCA advances to R$ 11.176,46, benefiting from income tax exemption.

Thus, although the difference may seem small in the first year, it favors the investor who seeks tax efficiency without giving up fixed income.

Investment	Value after 1 year
Savings	10.702,96 BRL
Treasury Selic 2031	11.133,79 BRL
CDB 100% of CDI	11.141,90 BRL
LCI/LCA exempt from income tax	11.176,46 BRL

Cumulative growth over 5 years

With the Selic rate at 14% per year, an investment of R$ 10 follows very different trajectories over five years.

In the first year, savings reach R$ 10.702,96 , while the Selic Treasury bond reaches R$ 11.133,79 and the CDB (Certificate of Deposit) that pays 100% of the CDI (Interbank Deposit Certificate) goes to R$ 11.141,90.

Meanwhile, LCI/LCA yields R$ 11.176,46 in the same period, boosted by the income tax exemption.

After that, however, the CDB takes the lead.

In the second year, it rises to R$ 12.515,84 , surpassing the LCI/LCA, which stands at R$ 12.491,42.

The difference grows continuously, reaching a difference of R$ 310,83 in the fifth year, when the CDB reaches R$ 17.727,18 and the LCI/LCA, R$ 17.416,35.

During this period, savings accounts closed at R$ 13.965,63 and Treasury Selic bonds at R$ 17.733,88 , demonstrating the advantage of post-fixed income in the longer term.

Product safety and warranties

The protection offered by fixed-income investments varies depending on the issuer and the product structure.

Thus, savings accounts , CDBs , LCIs, and LCAs are covered by the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund) up to R$ 250 per CPF (individual taxpayer ID) or CNPJ (company taxpayer ID), per institution or conglomerate, respecting the current global limit.

This guarantee reduces the credit risk for the issuing bank and provides more predictability for the investor, especially in traditional banking investments.

On the other hand, the Selic Treasury bond is not protected by the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund), because it is a public security issued by the federal government.

In this case, the security comes from the National Treasury , which is responsible for paying for the investment.

Therefore, the risk is not banking-related, but sovereign, which makes Tesouro Direto a different alternative within fixed income.

• SavingsProtected by the FGC up to R$ 250.
• CDBProtected by the FGC up to R$ 250.
• LCIProtected by the FGC up to R$ 250.
• LCAProtected by the FGC up to R$ 250.
• Selic TreasureIt is not covered by the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund), but it is backed by the National Treasury.

Projected drop in the Selic rate to 13,75% by 2026

With the Selic rate projected at 13,75% until 2026, fixed income tends to remain attractive, but with gradually lower returns.

In this scenario, savings accounts become even less competitive, while Treasury Selic bonds continue to offer security, although net returns decline with falling interest rates.

Fixed-rate and floating-rate CDBs may react differently, but in general, future gains tend to slow down as the rate-cutting cycle progresses.

In turn, LCIs and LCAs maintain a tax advantage, which preserves some of their appeal, especially in shorter terms.

However, CDBs can once again outperform these tax-exempt bonds over longer time horizons , depending on the contracted rate and the applicable tax.

Therefore, keeping track of Copom's decisions and frequently reassessing the portfolio becomes essential to adjust timeframes, liquidity, and risk.

Source: market projections and estimates for 2026.

In summary, the reduction in the Selic rate directly affects investment returns, making it crucial for investors to understand these changes.

This article highlighted the main options and their implications, helping to make more informed decisions for the financial future.