Sovereign Guarantee This has become a central theme in discussions about the financial health of the Post Office, especially after criticism from the Minister of the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) regarding the actions of the National Treasury.

The R$12 billion loan granted to the company has raised concerns about compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Law and the adequacy of the repayment capacity analysis performed.

In this article, we will explore the implications of this decision, the financial situation of the Postal Service, and the impact of public policies affecting the company's recovery amidst a severe crisis.

Criticisms from the TCU (Brazilian Federal Court of Accounts) regarding the Sovereign Guarantee granted by the National Treasury.

Minister Benjamin Zymler, of court Union accountsHe harshly criticized the sovereign guarantee granted by the National Treasury for the R$ 12 billion loan to the Post Office.

According to him, the analysis presented was superficial, merely accounting-based, and did not consistently assess the state-owned company's actual ability to pay.

Therefore, the understanding was that the measure "mortally wounds" the Fiscal Responsibility Lawbecause it transfers a financial risk to the public sector without robust proof of the operation's viability.

"The analysis was merely formal and accounting-based."

Furthermore, the TCU (Brazilian Federal Court of Accounts) pointed out that the absence of an external evaluation of the financial assumptions compromises the legal security of the credit and requires immediate improvement of Treasury controls.

Thus, although the court avoided penalties, it ordered the agency to be notified to correct the criteria used in similar operations.

The case gains even more weight because the Post Office is facing a severe crisis and is seeking a new loan of R$ 7 billion, which reinforces the need for prudence, transparency, and technical rigor in granting sovereign guarantees.

Inadequacy of the Postal Service's Payment Capacity Analysis

The Federal Court of Accounts decided to notify the National Treasury regarding inadequacy of the analysis Regarding the ability of the Postal Service to pay in the sovereign guarantee operation linked to the R$ 12 billion loan, without penalties, understanding that the assessment presented did not robustly support, with sufficient technical basis, the risk assumed by the Union.

The reporting minister criticized the procedure, stating that the analysis was... superficial and purely accountingIn other words, it is limited to formal figures, without sufficiently examining the economic, operational, and external assumptions that would support the company's viability.

Furthermore, the TCU (Brazilian Federal Court of Accounts) pointed out that the lack of independent evaluation weakens the legal security of the operation and requires immediate improvement of the criteria for granting guarantees.

As the Brazilian postal service faces a severe crisis and seeks new financing of R$ 7 billion, the decision highlights the need for a more rigorous assessment of its actual repayment capacity, especially given the government's delay in addressing the restructuring of the state-owned company.

Context of the Crisis and Attempts at Financial Restructuring of the Postal Service

The Brazilian postal service, Correios, is facing a serious financial crisis that is worsening daily, requiring urgent intervention to ensure its survival and continued operation.

Recently, the company requested a loan of R$ 12 billion, which raised serious concerns about the adequacy of the National Treasury's assessment of its ability to repay.

Furthermore, the company is already seeking a new loan of R$ 7 billion, highlighting the fragility of its restructuring plan and the need for a thorough assessment of its financial assumptions to avoid greater risks.

New Loan Request of R$ 7 Billion

The Brazilian postal service, Correios, has returned to the market because the financial crisis continues to put pressure on its cash flow and makes it difficult to maintain operations, especially after the need to restructure costs, renegotiate commitments, and recover its investment capacity.

Furthermore, the state-owned company is seeking $ 7 billion to bolster liquidity, support essential services, and provide breathing room for the reorganization plan.

However, the fragility of recent performance and the delay in addressing imbalances make the new loan an emergency measure, not a definitive solution.

Weaknesses in the Restructuring Plan and Legal Security

The Brazilian Federal Court of Accounts has expressed clear concerns about the fragility of the postal service's restructuring plan, calling into question the viability of the proposed measures.

The absence of an external assessment of the financial assumptions raises serious doubts about the reliability of the projections used, which could compromise not only the success of the restructuring, but also the legal security of the operation as a whole.

Given this scenario, the uncertainty surrounding the company's financial management exacerbates the risks, making the situation even more delicate in a context of crisis.

Lack of External Evaluation of Financial Assumptions

The absence of an external evaluation of the financial assumptions weakens the restructuring plan for the postal service because it prevents independent verification of revenues, costs, timelines, and risks.

Thus, projections are limited to the state-owned company itself, which increases the likelihood of optimistic assumptions and reduces the confidence of banks, the government, and regulatory bodies.

Furthermore, without an impartial technical opinion, it becomes more difficult to prove the actual ability to pay and to uphold the sovereign guarantee granted by the Treasury.

This compromises the legal security of the operation and highlights the relevance of independent verification to reduce fiscal risks and lend credibility to the measures adopted.

Impacts of Government Delay on the Postal Service Crisis

The criticism from the Federal Court of Accounts regarding the government's actions reveals that... government delay Facing the crisis at the postal service has increased the risk of operational and financial collapse.

By authorizing the sovereign guarantee of R$ 12 billion without a robust external analysis of the repayment capacity, the Treasury, according to the minister, adopted a superficial and purely accounting examination, which weakens the legal security of the operation and puts pressure on the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

Thus, the company remained exposed for longer to deteriorating cash flow, loss of credibility, and difficulty in executing a consistent restructuring plan.

Furthermore, the lack of a timely response deepens the financial vulnerability Regarding the postal service, this is problematic because it transfers the cost of poorly considered decisions to the public sector and postpones tough, but necessary, measures.

While the state-owned company attempts to secure a new loan of R$ 7 billion, concerns are growing about fragile assumptions and the possibility that the bailout will only postpone the problem.

Therefore, the TCU's warning is not limited to pointing out formal flaws; it highlights that government inaction compromises fiscal predictability, increases the Treasury's exposure, and leaves the company more susceptible to a cycle of indebtedness and instability.

Sovereign Guarantee The government's delayed response to the challenges faced by the postal service raises critical questions about the company's fiscal management and financial sustainability.

A more robust assessment is essential to avoid future risks and ensure the legal security of operations.