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The EU will be a big loser if a deal is not reached for rights holders in the UK to deal with the £69 trillion derivatives market.

What the hell is the European commission playing at? Don't they know they risk seeing the financial markets fall off the edge of a cliff?

The sober actions of the Bank of England's financial policy committee did not put it that way, but one could understand what was going on. When the Bank describes an “urgent” need for EU authorities to take “mitigation actions”, it means the position is serious. So it is: Threadneedle Street is talking about financial derivatives contracts worth £69 trillion, of which £41 trillion could have to be moved before next March, a task that would be either absurdly expensive or impossible to achieve.

The numbers almost seem too big to be significant, but the derivatives market really is huge. In fact, the £69tn and £41tn figures only refer to the notional size of the contracts held by EU-based companies on UK-based cleaners, equipment that sits in the middle of the market to clean up any problems. These contracts – interest rate and currency swaps and so on – are the everyday business of financial markets and ultimately serve to keep money flowing and reduce borrowing costs. To avoid chaos next March, this stuff has to keep working.

On the UK side, the bank says we have almost done our bit. The government is legislating to ensure UK companies can use EU cleaners after the Brexit . But EU authorities have not indicated that they will do the same in reverse, which is astonishing in many ways. Firstly, EU companies settle 90% of their derivatives in London. Secondly, EU savers do not have the capacity to quickly absorb 41 trillion contracts. Thirdly, the biggest losers without a deal would be EU companies.

If left alone, the technocrats could probably solve the problem before lunch. The Bank and the European Central Bank in Frankfurt have a joint working group that it says is working happily. The finger of suspicion therefore points to Brussels. Is the commission playing games of arrogance to try to take financial business away from London? Or do you seriously believe – like no one else – that companies can redo contracts in the remaining time?

Whatever the explanation, the Bank is probably tired of issuing dire warnings. He has been shouting about the risks to financial stability since last December. Financial markets have been optimistic, likely believing that common sense will prevail, which is still the most likely outcome regardless of what happens with the broader trade negotiations. But you almost want the markets to throw a tantrum. A no-deal Brexit, if it meant no deal on derivatives contracts, would be an absurd calamity.

Aviva stuck between BlackRock and a hard place

For a certain breed of chief executive, a seat on the board of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is a serious prize. It's a sign that you're a player on the global stage, able to share visionary thoughts with equally high-profile corporate titans.

Aviva's Mark Wilson has always given the impression that he saw the Black Rock show as too juicy to resist. He took up the role part-time in March, defying complaints from some Aviva shareholders and private murmuring from colleagues. Doubters considered that the chief executive of a large FTSE 100 insurer, especially one with a competing funds management business, should stick to the day job.

The critics won this little fight. Wilson was pushed out of Aviva on Tuesday, accompanied by praise for past achievements, but also by the blunt comment from its chairman, Sir Adrian Montague, that “this is the right time for a new leader to ensure that Aviva delivers all its potential.”

Changing the boss seems fair. BlackRock's post was not a breach of contract, but it reinforced the impression that Wilson, after six years in the role, was more interested in his next career than finding ways for Aviva to grow. Wilson's cleanup of the chaos he inherited at the insurance company in 2013 was impressive and the dividend recovery was strong, but you can't live on turnarounds forever. The share price has gone nowhere since the Friends Life acquisition in 2015.

Mark Wilson, who has stepped down as chief executive of Aviva

The fiasco of Aviva’s attempt to redeem “irredeemable” preference shares cannot be laid solely on Wilson’s doorstep, as the move was approved by the entire board. But the grumbling in the wings that the boss has lost the support of his fellow executives is true. In these circumstances, Montague & co had little choice but to act. When the chief executive is on a pay package worth more than £6 million a year, it is reasonable to expect his undivided attention.

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